Risk, contracts & investment
Climate resilience in PPPs: from contractual decisions to bankability
GREGO, Thiago. Article · LinkedIn ·
How contractual decisions connect climate risk with a PPP’s economic and financial logic.
Senior advisory · Concessions & PPPs
Government perspective. Structuring discipline. Delivery focus.
I'm Thiago Grego. I connect public management experience, modelling and independent verification to structure projects and inform decisions.
Public managementFormer Planning Secretary of BH2014–2016
StructuringCo-founder of Houer2016–2021
International engagementSenior PPP Specialist · ICLEISince May 2025
IESE MBAFDC Master'sCP3P FoundationEPPGG Minas GeraisWAPPP Social Sector Chapter
01
Experience that informs decisions
I understand decisions on each side of the table.
Government experience informs how I structure. Contract verification informs the questions I ask.
I have worked in planning and budgeting, served as a secretary in Belo Horizonte and co-founded an infrastructure consultancy. I was directly involved in MG-050, the prison system and BH’s lighting, education and Metropolitan Hospital PPPs. I bring that experience to options assessment, risk allocation and delivery planning.
Roles, institutions and dates16
years in the Minas Gerais governmentEPPGG · 2003–2019
07
years teaching at Fundação João PinheiroPlanning, projects and results-based management
Complementary experience
Concession and PPP structuring, governance and independent verification of contracts in delivery.
Projects. Places. People.
Transformation needs to show in real life.
Roads, lighting and public spaces. Records of assets and interventions that illustrate different challenges in my professional career.
Before / After
From pavement to the experience of every road user.
On MT-320, the concessionaire's photographic report documents pavement and road marking rehabilitation. Change that can be seen, monitored and measured.
Explore the project context ↗
02
Who I support
Advisory shaped around the decision you need to make.
Prepare a public decision that can be delivered.
I support municipalities and state-owned companies in defining the need, assessing options and structuring concessions and PPPs.
Feasibility · modelling · risk allocation · procurement support
Discuss a projectConnect the business model to the realities of the contract.
I work on modelling, governance and contract monitoring, focusing on responsibilities, indicators and operational decisions.
Financial modelling · governance · performance
Discuss a projectUnderstand the project before committing capital.
I organise feasibility, risk and implementation analyses to support opportunity assessment and portfolio development.
Feasibility · risk analysis · portfolio prioritisation
Discuss a projectFive advisory areas
Deliverables defined around the project's context.
01Concessions & PPP structuring
I turn an investment intention into a project that can be assessed, modelled and brought to market.
Feasibility studies · financial modelling · risk allocation · support for tender documents
02SOE & project company governance
I organise decisions, responsibilities and monitoring mechanisms so governance works in practice.
Shareholders' agreements · boards · compliance · performance monitoring
03Climate & SDGs as a project portfolio
I connect development goals to a project portfolio with an implementation and financing rationale.
Prioritisation · project design · institutional coordination · bankability
04Independent verification
I verify delivery to identify where contractual commitments meet operational reality.
Performance indicators · evidence · contract monitoring · reporting
05Team training
I teach public sector teams to ask better questions and make informed decisions about concessions and PPPs.
Five Case Model · planning · projects · results-based management
Explore training formats03
Working method
FIVE CASE MODEL
Every stage must support a decision.
I use five dimensions to connect public need with feasibility and implementation capacity. Deliverables are tailored to each engagement.
01 / FIVE CASE MODEL
What public need must be addressed?
Indicative deliverable
Project need and objectives
DimensionDecision to informIndicative deliverable
01
Strategic
What public need must be addressed?
Project need and objectives
02
Economic
Which option delivers more value?
Options, costs and benefits
03
Commercial
How should risk be allocated and the market engaged?
Procurement model and risk allocation
04
Financial
Is the project affordable?
Financial model and affordability
05
Management
Who delivers, measures and monitors?
Governance, indicators and implementation plan
I cross-check these dimensions against the applicable legal framework and lessons from independent verification. The project needs to work after the auction.
04
Projects & experience
Government experience. A structuring and delivery perspective.
My direct involvement in five PPPs in Minas Gerais and Belo Horizonte, experience in public markets and structuring and verification records.
Direct government involvement, structuring and experience with assets.
Belo Horizonte public lighting PPP
Belo Horizonte, Brazil
Explore experience
Education PPP · UMEIs
Belo Horizonte, Brazil
Explore experience
Dr. Célio de Castro Metropolitan Hospital
Belo Horizonte, Brazil
Explore experience
MG-050 road PPP
Minas Gerais, Brazil
Explore experience
Prison system PPP
Minas Gerais, Brazil
Explore experience
Santo Mercado
São Paulo / SP
Explore experience
Mercado do Cruzeiro
Belo Horizonte / MG
Explore experience
Mato Grosso road concessions
Mato Grosso, Brazil
Explore experience
Direct government involvement: MG-050, the prison system, Belo Horizonte public lighting, UMEIs and the Metropolitan Hospital. Other government PPPs provide programme context for the period; each dossier identifies the nature of the experience, milestones and sources.
ODS
From purpose to delivery
A goal needs a project.
I connect development goals to public needs, contractual obligations and evidence of delivery.
SDG4
Quality education · Target 4.a
Education PPP · UMEIs
Appropriate school infrastructure to support learning and care.
SDG3Good health and well-being · Target 3.8
Dr. Célio de Castro Metropolitan Hospital
Infrastructure and support services for healthcare provision.
SDG7Affordable and clean energy · Target 7.3
Belo Horizonte public lighting PPP
Lighting modernisation and energy efficiency.
SDG9Industry, innovation and infrastructure · Target 9.1
MG-050 road PPP
Quality and reliability of infrastructure connecting places.
SDG11Sustainable cities and communities · Target 11.6
Solid waste
Municipal waste management and environmental impact control.
These are thematic connections to the UN goals, not impact certifications. Each dossier identifies aspects to monitor; measured results require project evidence. The UN goals ↗
05
Independent verification
Delivery is part of my perspective too.
In independent verification, I examine the relationship between contractual obligations, information and performance. I bring these questions to structuring from the outset.
01
Indicators
What needs to be measured, and against which criteria?
02
Evidence
What information supports the performance assessment?
03
Responsibilities
Who monitors, decides and is accountable for the outcome?
06
Background
Roles, institutions and accumulated experience.
Inside government
I served as a public policy and government management specialist in Minas Gerais, working in planning, budgeting, environment and public safety.
Public budgeting in Belo Horizonte
I served as Municipal Deputy Secretary for Budget, working on the city’s planning and resource allocation decisions.
Planning in Belo Horizonte
I served as Municipal Secretary for Planning, Budget and Information, following my role as Deputy Secretary for Budget.
Structuring at Houer
I co-founded Houer. Experience from this period forms part of my professional records, with each project's attribution to be documented.
Public markets at B2i
I was a partner at B2i Participações, connecting structuring, investment and asset operations.
An international bridge
Since May 2025, I have served as Senior PPP Specialist at ICLEI South America. I have been a member of WAPPP's Social Sector PPP chapter since 2024.
An initial conversation
What decision does your project need to make now?
Tell me the context, your current stage and the challenge. I start by understanding the problem and the support needed.
Discuss a project thiago@gregoconsultoria.com.brSave my contact WhatsApp · +55 (31) 99737-8570